Is the Ethereum Mining still worth it?

Ethereum Mining

From past over, but still something to run, or buy new hardware? Those who have dealt with mining in the past have often been faced with the question of continuing, stopping and selling everything or investing heavily again? 

This question particularly concerns the active miners in countries with very high electricity prices, a country like Germany is. Whether it was Bitcoin or Ethereum, someday you will be faced with exactly these questions and should make an economically sensible decision.

But why are we writing this today?

We have just recalculated, which can stay at the Ethereum Mining currently the bottom line. We want to emphasize that this bill is only correct if our assumptions are found to be correct. That may not be the case for everyone, but for a very large amount of private miners, this bill will be about the same. Please see our note at the end of this blog. We would like to discuss two examples below.

1. Is mining still worth it today?
2. What is the situation when you started using ETH Mining about a month ago?

It uses mining hardware with a performance of about 40 to 42 MH / s, which corresponds to about 2 graphics cards (R9 380x), furthermore, we assume that we could buy this hardware for a price of 380 €. Mainboard, CPU, RAM, motherboard, power supply and housing already exist. The electricity price is calculated at about 0.22 € per KW / h, alternatively you can also use 0.28 € per KW / h.

With this hash performance (40 - 42 MH / s) we get (as of 23.04.2016) still ~ 0.5855 Ethereum per day, at a price of 7.94 $ (7.07 €) this equates to $ 4,64887 (4,14 €). Of these 4.14 € per day but still have the electricity costs to be paid. The pattern system that we assume here needs 430 watts per hour, which corresponds to 10,320 watts per day (10.32 KW) - multiplied by an electricity price of 0.22 €, that is 2.27 €. If you multiply by 0.28 € per KW / h, it is already 2.89 € per day.

Profit
0,22 € per KW / h = 4,14 € - 2,27 € = 1,87 € x 30 days (month) = 56,1 € profit
0,28 € per KW / h = 4,14 € 2,89 € = 1,25 € x 30 days (month) = 37,5 € profit

The electricity bill increases naturally, which also impacts
to have future installment payments.

electricity price
0.22 € per KW / h = 2.27 € x 30 days = 68.1 € electricity costs
0,28 € per KW / h = 2,89 € x 30 days = 86,7 € electricity costs

Conclusion:

Actually, these numbers are already frightening enough, it shows that you can still operate profitably in Germany mining or could - but that's only half the page of the coin, after all, wants to be paid in many cases even the hardware. Before the hardware is not paid, so we do not even talk about profit, but are trying hard to bring these costs back.

The graphic cards used in our example already cost about 380 €, if you get this very cheap. The normal price is more at 420 € to 530 €. (For both together mind you) If you try to recoup these hardware costs by mining yourself, everyone should quickly realize that this

•  could take a long time
•  or not, could / will -> because the Difficulty (difficulty) continue to increase, this bill is unfortunately still far too positive and the ROI (Return on Investment) moves in the very distant distance or is even unattainable.

Evolution of the Difficulty of Ethereum

You can see very well, the strong increase in recent weeks / months.
Just suppose the Difficulty will not continue to rise (very unlikely) and the price remains the same, so you need right now.

a. at 0.22 € KW / h about 6.77 months to get to + -0
b. at 0.22 € KW / h about 10.13 months to get to + -0

These figures clearly show how difficult it would be to achieve ROI even if the price remained constant and the difficulty remained constant. Not included here are hardware defects which may not be covered by the manufacturer's warranty. Furthermore, only the costs for the graphics cards and the power have been taken into account here so far. CPU, RAM, motherboard and power supply both want and have to be paid. If you look at these additional costs in mind, it should become clear what kind of hopeless fight one would have with the Ethereum Mining. Furthermore, it should be noted that Ehtereum will soon be switched from POW (Proof of Work) to POS (Proof of Stake), so that a mining with GPUs will not be possible - exact information after when we did not find. However, it is assumed that it should be ready by the end of 2016 at the latest.

Part 2
However, we would like to continue our little thought experiment, let's play with numbers - numbers that are about 1 month old and a miner who started mining about 5-6 weeks ago, vlt. but could still conjure a smile in the face. (The following numbers and data are not from the air, but come from a miner.)


So we assume that the hardware has been active at the mines since about 11.03.2016 + - one to two days test run. The hardware devil played in this example calculation also against us, a fan for 10 ¬ has broken - but such a pity synonymous. Furthermore, we assume that from time to time we can run an R9 280x out of a workstation as soon as the workstation is in idle mode. This gives us a constant 40 to 41 MH / s in this thought experiment. From time to time due to the workstation sometimes 60 to 62 MH / s. Furthermore, we assume that the geminated Ethereum has been sold immediately after it has been transferred from the pool.

So you could have taken in this period about 295 € by the Ethereum Mining. Of that, however, electricity costs in the amount of about 98 € have to be deducted. Remain 197 € after about 42 days of mining over - until the ROI is still missing 193 €. We have already returned our investment (€ 380 + € 10) to 50.51%. Certainly not a bad value, but it still lacks 49.49% up to the ROI.

A long way to go, considering that the price has dropped lately and Difficulty has risen.

But what could a possible solution look like? - To minen the missing 193 € with Ethereum it needs

a. at € 0.22 per KW / h about 3.44 months
b. at 0.28 € per KW / h, it is still at least 5.15 months

Always under the assumption that the price and the difficulty no longer change. One could also say that the continuation of the mining would be the proverbial ride on the cannonball. But how could you get the cow off the ice? Perhaps the ROI has already come within reach?

We clearly say yes, you could certainly ride the cannonball for a while. How meaningful that is or not, the bottom line must everyone decide for themselves.

However, it is also a fact that with every day of mining the electricity bill increases - this additional consumption will have an impact on future payments to the electricity supplier - that is the fact. Is it worth it for a few euros to keep the mining running and suddenly have to pay higher discounts in one year at the latest? Again a question that everyone has to answer himself or should.

One thing is already clear, however, who can sell the hardware cleverly - he has achieved his ROI and can even make a nice profit. Currently  you get for an  R9 380x on Ebay about 250 €, we deduct 10 € fees - so you should get about 240 € per card. That's exactly what you had to pay for such a card thanks to a discount campaign about 1 month ago. Only and the fan for 10 ¬, well, that must be deducted from the profit. CPU, RAM, motherboard and power supply are not used in this thought experiment.

The fact is that if you already had the hardware and just had to buy the graphics cards and this now almost could sell for the purchase price or can - you do not even stand there so bad.
You could also put it a little differently: You could have done so within 42 days from 380 €, 567 € by the Ethereum Mining. Makes a hefty plus of 49.21%

At this point we would like to conclude with our little thought experiment. However, it clearly shows that those who started mining a month ago and acted as in the example described, now have the chance to leave the field with a win. Surely one could still speculate on a rising price and a sinking Difficulty - but the shot can go back enormously. What do you read in many forums and especially in the Coinforum very often?
"Never drive from the profit zone in the loss zone."

And with that we want to conclude now.

Note:

We assume no liability for the accuracy of the assumptions or prices. These numbers are certainly not out of thin air, but we can not guarantee that these numbers are right for you or not. It is in no way a consultation on a speculative investment or the like. As always, you are responsible for your actions.